The NCAA Tournament tips off this week. It’s one of the biggest sporting events in the country, both for fans and for bettors, and that’s especially true for Arizona sports betting.
There’s no Final Four or regional taking place in the state, but the Arizona Wildcats are a four-seed in the East Region. In addition, some have tabbed the Grand Canyon Antelopes as a team that could score a first-round upset when they play the Maryland Terrapins.
Both local teams play on Friday. Follow our Arizona Wildcats Basketball Betting Odds guide here.
The American Gaming Association announced last week it expects bettors to wager $3.1 billion on this year’s men’s and women’s NCAA tournaments in states, like Arizona, that have legalized sports betting. BetArizona wanted to find out how much of that would come from the Copper State.
To come up with our estimate, we took the AGA’s forecast and devised a basic market share based on data from the states, like Arizona, that make handle and revenue totals public. From there, we adjusted the totals based on assumptions of college basketball interest related to other sports in each state.
March Madness Expected To Generate $190 Million Handle In Arizona
Arizona is one of the states that punches above its weight when it comes to sports betting. In 2024, Arizona sportsbooks accepted nearly $7.9 billion in wagers. That’s roughly $500 million off what Pennsylvania’s sports betting operators took last year, and Pennsylvania (13.1 million) has a significantly higher population than Arizona (7.6 million).
That’s one of the reasons why we’re bullish on AZ betting apps as a market for this year’s NCAA Tournaments. The state’s share of the 2024 U.S. handle was 5.1%. Using that as a base, Arizona should expect to see $160 million in wagers on March Madness, based on the AGA’s forecast.
However, we believe the fan support for the state’s teams in the tournament, plus Arizona’s proximity to Las Vegas, which is where many prominent sports bettors reside, means the state should surpass that total. Bettors seeking more options than what’s currently available in Nevada will find them in Arizona. That’s why we’ve set our forecast at $190 million for Arizona’s NCAA Tournament handle.
What Can Arizona Expect From NCAA Tournament Sports Betting Taxes
Sportsbook revenues and the taxes that come from them are more complicated to estimate because that’s contingent on how well bettors perform. In generating our forecast for Arizona sports betting tax revenue, we created two scenarios. The first is a 5% hold, which would indicate bettors fared well – either because the Wildcats made a deep run in the tournament or because many betting favorites covered. The other is a 12% hold, which assumes more upsets and earlier-than-expected exits for local teams.
Fanatics Arizona gives the Arizona Wildcats odds of +4000 to win the NCAA title this season. Caesars offers odds of -200 for the Wildcats to reach the Sweet 16, while the Antelopes are offered at +1400 to reach the regional semifinals.
Arizona is one of the few states with a bifurcated tax structure on sports betting operator revenues. Online apps pay a 10% tax, while the state charges brick-and-mortar operators an 8% levy. For the purposes of our exercise, we assumed 97% of the revenue would be generated by online books.
Using those assumptions, BetArizona expects the state's sports betting tax revenues from the NCAA Tournament to range from nearly $945,000 to $2.27 million.
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