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Christopher Boan is the lead writer at BetArizona.com after covering sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
Is Arizona A Swing State For 2024 Presidential Election?
The United States presidential election is here, and BetArizona.com — typically home to all things Arizona sportsbooks — wanted to know the breakdown of what states are more interested in Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump. Using Google Trends, we found the top 7 potential swing states search interest scores for both “Kamala Harris” and “Donald Trump.” Then we found which candidate Arizona metro regions are searching for.
We also developed the following odds of how Arizona will vote in 2024.
Is Arizona A Red Or Blue State 2024?
Utilizing the average results of 3 current polls for the 2024 Presidential Election, BetArizona.com developed the following odds of how Arizona will vote in 2024. The 3 polls were “Franklin & Marshall,” “Bloomberg / Morning Consult,” “Susquehanna Polling.”
Party | Odds | Percent Chance |
Donald Trump (Republican) | +103 | 49.3% |
Kamala Harris (Democrat) | +113 | 46.9% |
Of note: Between 2000 and 2020, Arizona voted for the winning presidential candidate 66.7% of the time.
Election Year | Democrat Candidate | Republican Candidate |
2020 | Joe Biden (49.4%) | Donald Trump (49.1%) |
2016 | Hillary Clinton (45.1%) | Donald Trump (48.7%) |
2012 | Barack Obama (44.6%) | Mitt Romney (53.7%) |
2008 | Barack Obama (45.1%) | John McCain (53.6%) |
2004 | John Kerry (44.4%) | George W. Bush (54.9%) |
Since 2000, Arizona has voted Democratic 16.7% of the time and Republican 83.3% of the time.
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Arizona Metro Breakdown: Harris vs. Trump
Metro | Harris Search Interest Score | Trump Search Interest Score |
Phoenix | 76 | 24 |
Tucson | 75 | 25 |
Yuma | 74 | 26 |
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Right now, if search interest scores were votes, it’d be safe to say that Harris would be carrying the state’s three largest metros with room to spare, as the Democratic Party candidate has scores of 76, 75 and 74 in Phoenix, Tucson and Yuma, respectively.
Those totals nearly triple Trump’s sums in the three areas, with the former reality TV show star notching search interest scores of 24 (Phoenix), 25 (Tucson) and 26 (Yuma), speaking to the vast divide in electoral preferences between Arizona’s urban and rural areas.
Swing States: Harris vs. Trump
State | Harris Search Interest Score | Trump Search Interest Score |
Arizona | 72 | 95 |
Georgia | 69 | 81 |
Michigan | 77 | 100 |
North Carolina | 74 | 84 |
Pennsylvania | 80 | 95 |
Nevada | 67 | 89 |
Wisconsin | 75 | 87 |
Despite Harris’ large lead in terms of search interest scores in places like Phoenix, Tucson and Yuma, the Democratic flagbearer in the 2024 election lags behind Trump statewide, with a total of 72 to the Republican’s score of 95.
That divide between Harris and Trump in Arizona is similar to other swing states, with the Republican former president notching better totals in Georgia (81 to 69), Michigan (100 to 77), North Carolina (84 to 74), Pennsylvania (95 to 80), Nevada (89 to 67) and Wisconsin (87 to 75).
Luckily for Harris’ camp, the election isn’t determined by search traffic online, which gives the former Senator from California a few more days to try and hammer home her camp’s message so they can appeal to voters, as the Democrats look to keep their spot in the White House through 2028 on Nov. 5.
USA Today photo by Jasper Colt.
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